The Private View has lengthy argued that the 2015 – 2033 interval echoes the 1895 – 1913 period; each formed by transformation, disruption, innovation and deep structural change.
On the middle of every period? Two remarkably aligned presidents, particularly William McKinley (1897 – 1901) and Donald Trump (2017 – 2021, 2025+). This concept has been on the coronary heart of Warren Hammond’s Private Views and ideas, concepts and insights since first expressing this view in 2016.
Right here’s why the parallels matter – for politics, markets and buyers:
1. Commerce Protectionism: McKinley’s Dingley Tariff raised duties to a document 52%. Trump’s commerce struggle imposed 25%+ tariffs (particularly on China), with a ten% common tariff proposed for 2025.
2. Financial Nationalism: Each emphasised home manufacturing, strategic autonomy, and correcting commerce imbalances.
3. Technological Disruption: McKinley had electrification and industrial enlargement. Trump’s period mirrors this with AI, EVs, and the disruptive rise of Musk (the trendy Ford?).
4. Isolationist Tendencies: McKinley prioritised nationwide curiosity. Trump pulled the US from international pacts just like the Paris Accord, WHO, and TPP.
5. Structural Shifts: The Panic of 1907 led to the delivery of the Federal Reserve. Submit-2020 liquidity might set off a monetary system reset of its personal.
6. Threats to Energy: McKinley was assassinated. Trump survived a number of makes an attempt, together with the 2024 capturing at a rally.
7. Social gathering Recalibration: Each reshaped the Republican Social gathering, round tariffs, nationalism, sturdy government management, and business-first insurance policies.
Implications?
• Continued help for oil, gasoline, gold, copper and agriculture.
• In a fragmented world order (just like the post-McKinley colonial interval), anticipate elevated protection publicity, danger premiums, and worth in non-correlated belongings (actual belongings, volatility hedges, and so on).
Do you assume that there are any classes we are able to draw from the outcomes of McKinley’s insurance policies to assist us navigate by our day by day challenges?
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