London — Since launching its wildly well-liked weight-loss drug Wegovy in 2021, Novo Nordisk has raised its annual gross sales steering a number of occasions a 12 months.
However current weak US prescription knowledge is main some buyers and analysts to query whether or not that stellar run, which helped make Novo Europe’s most dear listed firm price $615bn at its peak, is coming to an finish.
In February, the Danish drugmaker forecast 2025 gross sales progress of 16%-24% at fixed alternate charges, a a lot slower tempo than up to now few years.
Half a dozen analysts and buyers say even that will not be sensible and the corporate might reduce the steering when it releases first-quarter outcomes on Might 7.
Novo stated in February it had elevated provides of Wegovy to the US to fulfill booming demand and that its steering mirrored this.
Nonetheless, weekly US Wegovy prescriptions have plateaued since mid-February, in keeping with IQVIA knowledge cited by analysts, whereas there’s elevated competitors from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound weight problems shot, prescriptions for which outpaced Wegovy by 128,000 within the week ending April 11.
Novo and its rivals additionally face the specter of their merchandise turning into ensnared in US President Donald Trump’s commerce battle.
Whereas a consensus of 25 analysts polled by LSEG exhibits Novo’s 2025 gross sales anticipated to rise 19%, Financial institution of America analysts anticipate the corporate to chop its steering to 14%-22%, which might be the weakest since 2021.
“I’m very cautious on Novo. I positively see the opportunity of a steering reduce,” agreed Lukas Leu, a portfolio supervisor at Bellevue Asset Administration, which owns Novo shares.
Considerations about how Novo is faring in opposition to Lilly within the fiercely aggressive weight problems drug market and disappointing trial knowledge for its next-generation drug CagriSema have wiped $230bn, or 45%, off its market worth since early December.
Some analysts anticipate prescriptions of Wegovy and Ozempic to recuperate after the US Meals and Drug Administration (FDA) enforces a ban on copies, which Novo says might redirect demand to its personal merchandise.
The FDA has given pharmacies till Might 22 to cease producing compounded copies of Wegovy, following its evaluation that Wegovy and Ozempic are not in scarcity.
Berenberg analyst Kerry Holford stated Novo has been highlighting that it estimates about 30% of quantity of semaglutide — the energetic ingredient in each medicine — within the US is at present equipped by compounding pharmacies.
Novo declined to remark as a result of it’s in a quiet interval forward of outcomes and it doesn’t touch upon hypothesis.
Novo’s shares posted their greatest month-to-month drop in March since July 2002. The rout accelerated this week, pushing the share worth to a two-and-a-half-year low after Lilly’s announcement that its experimental capsule orforglipron labored in addition to Ozempic in lowering weight and blood sugar in a trial of diabetes sufferers. Lilly’s shares jumped greater than 14% on the information.
Lucy Coutts, funding director at wealth supervisor JM Finn, a Novo shareholder, stated analysts are cut up.
“The market is hoping for optimistic information … however the shares are priced for disappointment.”
Reuters
